Canadian Federal Election: A Minority Win Brings Continuity, Not Clarity

Canada’s 2025 federal election ended on April 28th, with the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, securing a minority government. While the Liberals staged a significant resurgence in recent months, they ultimately fell just short of a majority and will now need to work with other parties to govern. The Conservatives, meanwhile, improved their standing and will serve as the official opposition. The election also marked a clear shift away from the Bloc Québécois and NDP, both of which saw reduced support and seat counts, suggesting voter consolidation around the two leading national parties.

A defining issue of the campaign was leadership on the international stage, particularly as tensions with the United States intensified. With President Trump threatening aggressive trade action and signaling a renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), Canadian voters appeared to weigh which leader was better equipped to navigate the country through a turbulent global environment. Mark Carney, a former investment banker who previously served as a central banker for Canada and the United Kingdom, is well-known to Canadian capital markets. He held the positions of Chair at Bloomberg, Vice-Chair at Brookfield Asset Management and was offered the role of President at Shopify. Carney’s credentials as a global economic figure may have helped persuade voters seeking steady, credible leadership in uncertain times.

However, the minority result brings with it heightened policy uncertainty. Without a majority, the Liberals will be forced to govern through ad hoc alliances, likely with either the Bloc or the remnants of the NDP, whose leader resigned after losing his seat. Historically, minority governments in Canada have had shorter durations, and given today’s fragmented political landscape, another early election cannot be ruled out. That dynamic increases the risk of policy drift, especially around major initiatives in fiscal, trade, and regulatory reform.

The energy sector enters this new Parliament with limited reason for optimism. Hopes for a regulatory reset—including changes to the federal emissions cap, the environmental assessment regime (Bill C-69), and the West Coast tanker ban (Bill C-48)—now appear unlikely. While Carney has spoken about accelerating permitting timelines and improving infrastructure delivery, historical Liberal support for these policies suggests that any reform will be modest and highly negotiated. The result leaves the energy investment environment clouded by continued regulatory overhang, despite broad public support for more pragmatic development of Canada's natural resources.

In the end, the election reaffirmed the status quo but did little to address the country’s structural economic challenges. With a divided Parliament and pressing external risks, the coming months will test the Liberals’ ability to govern effectively. Investors are left with stability, but little strategic visibility—and the hope that pragmatism prevails in an increasingly fragmented policy landscape.