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Monthly Insights To Help You Stay In Front Of The U.S. Business Cycle

ClearBridge Investments, a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton, designed the Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program to deliver thoughtful perspective on the state of the US economy with concise, practical views updated every month. Our exclusive recession risk and recovery dashboards provide the statistical foundation of our perspective. Watch the video to hear more about the program from Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze. and use the tabs below to explore the current market views.

  • Recession Risk
  • Recession Risk by Comparison
  • Case Study

Recession Risk

Recession Risk

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators
    May 31, 2026 March 31, 2026 December 31, 2025
Consumer
 Housing Permits Expansion Caution Caution
Job Sentiment Recession Recession Recession
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Expansion
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Expansion
Wage Growth Expansion Expansion Expansion
Business Activity
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Expansion
ISM New Orders Expansion Expansion Recession
Profit Margins Expansion Caution Caution
Truck Shipments Expansion Expansion Expansion
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Expansion
Money Supply Expansion Expansion Expansion
Yield Curve Expansion Expansion Expansion
  Overall Signal Expansion Expansion Expansion

 

Expansion Expansion    Caution Caution   Recession Recession  

 

Data as of May 31, 2026. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

Recession Risk by Comparison

Recession Risk by Comparison

U.S. Recession Risk Indicators
    Current 2020 2007-2009 2001 1990-1991 1981-1982 1980 1973-1975 1969-1970
Confidence
 Housing Permits Expansion Expansion Recession Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Job Sentiment Recession Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Caution Caution
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Expansion Recession
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession
Wage Growth Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Economic
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Caution Caution
ISM New Orders Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Profit Margins Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession
Truck Shipments Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession n/a n/a
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Expansion Caution
Money Supply Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Yield Curve Expansion Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
  Overall Signal Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession Caution Recession

 

Expansion Expansion    Caution Caution   Recession Recession   
 

Data as of May 31, 2026. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, ISM, BEA, American Chemistry Council, American Trucking Association, Conference Board, Bloomberg, CME, FactSet and Macrobond. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard was created in January 2016. References to the signals it would have sent in the years prior to January 2016 are based on how the underlying data was reflected in the component indicators at the time.

Case Study

Case Study

1990 Recession
    Q2 1988 Q4 1988 Q2 1989 Q4 1989 Q2 1990
Consumer
 Housing Permits Caution Expansion Caution Caution Recession
Job Sentiment Expansion Expansion Expansion Recession Recession
Jobless Claims Expansion Expansion Expansion Recession Recession
Retail Sales Expansion Expansion Expansion Caution Recession
Wage Growth Recession Recession Recession Recession Recession
Business Activity
 Commodities Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession
ISM New Orders Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession
Profit Margins Expansion Expansion Expansion Caution Recession
Truck Shipments Expansion Caution Recession Recession Recession
Financial
 Credit Spreads Expansion Expansion Caution Recession Recession
Money Supply Caution Recession Recession Recession Recession
Yield Curve Expansion Expansion Recession Recession Recession

 

Source: S&P, FactSet, NBER, and Bloomberg.

U.S. Recession Risk Interactive Dashboard

ClearBridge Investments utilizes twelve different economic indicators to assess the risk of recession. This interactive version of our exclusive Recession Risk Dashboard allows you to vary the settings for each indicator based on different scenarios that reflect your own views of future conditions.

  • Each indicator is set to reflect the Dashboard’s current positioning, which is updated monthly, using the most recent data available.
  • Slide the toggle for each indicator left or right to test the market impact of your own “what-if” scenarios.
  • Click the icon next to each indicator for more information about the individual indicator.

Note each individual indicator can signal expansion, caution or recession in the economy. The signals from each of the twelve indicators are combined into an overall dashboard signal of green, yellow or red. The indicators, signals and changes are based on the ClearBridge interpretation of the data and analysis. The data is supplied by ClearBridge Investments, a Franklin Templeton subsidiary. The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard is not a crystal ball, but can serve as a tool to evaluate the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.

Financial

Yield Curve

Cycle Highs Steepens Further Stable Flatter Inverted

Credit Spreads

Stable Modest Widening Material Widening Substantial Widening Cycle Wides

Money Supply

Increase Stable Slightly Lower Lower Materially Lower

Inflation

Wage Growth

Further Declines Stable Increase Material Increase Substantial Increase

Commodities

Strengthen Stable Weaken Material Weakness Substantial Weakness

Consumer

Housing Permits

Substantial Pickup Improvement Stable Further Weakness Substantial Decline

Jobless Claims

Stable Modest Increase Increase Material Increase Substantial Increase

Retail Sales

Material Improvement Improvement Stable Weaken Material Weakness

Job Sentiment

Cycle Highs Material Improvement Improvement Slight Improvement Stable

Business Activity

ISM New Orders

Cycle Highs Stable Modest Weakness Contractionary Territory Substantial Weakness

Profit Margins

Prior-Cycle Highs Material Improvement Stable Modest Deterioration Substantial Contraction

Truck Shipments

Cycle Highs Stable Modest Decline Decline Substantial Decline

The current dashboard is updated by ClearBridge Investments as of 5/31/2026

All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any information, statement or opinion set forth herein is general in nature, is not directed to or based on the financial situation or needs of any particular investor, and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or a recommendation with respect to any particular security or investment strategy or type of retirement account. Investors seeking financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies should consult their financial professional.

Resources

Anatomy of a Recession Presentation

This comprehensive presentation provides an extensive current market and economic overview, as well as additional content on other relevant themes.

Download
INSIGHTS

Explore Clearbridge Insights

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JUNE 3, 2026

AOR Update: Resilience

ClearBridge Investments suggests robust corporate earnings should continue to provide a solid market foundation, making investors inclined to continue to “buy the dips” should pullbacks emerge.

JUNE 1, 2026

AOR Update (Podcast): Jevons paradox predicts no AI “job apocalypse”

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments joins host John Przygocki to assess the health of the US economy. He points to a resilient Q1 GDP reading, strong jobs data and earnings growth in estimating a 30% recession probability. He cites the Jevons paradox to explain why he doesn’t fear an AI “job apocalypse.” And he remains bullish on US equities despite Middle East uncertainty and inflation worries.

MAY 6, 2026

AOR Update: Mailbag edition

ClearBridge Investments suggests investors could use volatility as an opportunity to deploy capital, while modestly favoring the stronger earnings revisions and more reasonable valuations available in non-US equities.

Stay updated with the latest resources and insights